Original-Research: MAX Automation SE (von NuWays AG)

Original-Research: MAX Automation SE - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu MAX Automation SE

Unternehmen: MAX Automation SE
ISIN: DE000A2DA588

Anlass der Studie: Update
Empfehlung: BUY
seit: 05.12.2023
Kursziel: € 8,20
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung: 
Analyst: Konstantin Völk

Strong growth opportunities carried by structural trends; PT up
Despite a strong competitive quality and structural growth drivers, MAX
Automation had difficulties translating it into operating performance
between 2016 and 2020. Thanks to MAX having done its homework by adjusting
its portfolio and structural trends kicking in, shares look poised for a
Until 2025e, MAX Automation should be able to grow sales to € 510m while
achieving disproportionate EBITDA growth of 15% (2022-25e CAGR) thanks to:
Structural growth drivers: MAX's subsidiary bdtronic is a leading provider
of trickling impregnation, which significantly improves performance and
safety metrics of electric drive trains. With the number of electric
vehicles likely to continue to soar during the foreseeable future, the need
for its automated solutions, that enable particularly high production speed
without sacrificing quality, should enable bdtronc’s sales to grow >20%
Defensible competitive quality: Bdtronic's trickling impregnation business
is based on highly specific know-how and a strong reputation, establishing
lock-in effects and hence high entry barriers. Once the impregnation
machines are installed, it is costly for OEMs to switch to different
suppliers, enabling bdtronic a lucrative service business, allowing for
EBITDA margins north of 17% for bdtronic (eNuW).
With that, MAX’s group KPIs should also further improve: EBIT margins (5.4%
in FY22 -> 7.6%), ROCEs (9.4% in FY22 to >11%) and free cashflow generation
(neg. in FY22 to € 20m) going forward.
In addition to the improving operating performance, a successful divestment
of the subsidiary MA micro (company news 08.09.2023) should be a notable
share price catalyst, revealing that the value of the “parts” clearly
exceeds the current Enterprise Value of the MAX Automation group, in our
view. A strategic buyer should be willing to pay at least 10x EBITDA for
this highly profitable and return-rich specialty
business, implying a purchase price of above € 100m (eNuW).
Importantly, even after a divestment, MAX would own hidden Mittelstand
champions such as bdtronic and Vecoplan, amongst other, whose combined
value alone would well exceed the remaining (theoretical) € 200m EV of the
group ex MA micro (eNuW), underpinning the undervaluation of the stock.
Hence, we reiterate our BUY rating with an increased € 8.20 PT (old: €
7.30) based on DCF.

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Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG  - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

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